Thanks to the new, quarterly supply, the domestic market of warehouse and logistics space with its total resources exceeded the level of 26 million sq m. The largest newly completed facilities between April and June were: in Upper Silesia, the Panattoni Park Ruda Śląska III complex (66,500 sq m) and Panattoni Park Pabianice, located in the Central Poland zone (63,600 sq m). The first one is fully commercialized, while the second one still has about 30 percent. free space.
In the second quarter, approximately 4.3 million sq m was under construction on the Vistula River. modern warehouse, logistics and industrial space. According to developers' announcements, one third should enrich the market by the end of 2022. The authors of the report point out that one of the effects in the search for a new market equilibrium - noticeable in the analyzed quarter - was the decline in the share of speculative projects in construction. Compared to the first quarter, it decreased by about 20 percent.
Despite the difficult geopolitical situation, high inflation, stabilizing but still high costs of materials and construction and general uncertainty in the markets, the logistics industry has strong foundations, which is confirmed by a very high quarterly gross demand - 2.2 million sq m. The largest transaction of the quarter was the lease of a BTS facility by Globalway, one of the largest suppliers of products from the Far East. The company will grow in the Panattoni Park Gdańsk East III facility, which will occupy 103,000 sq m. sqm Slightly less, because 90 thousand. sqm, also from Panattoni, was leased by the German fashion platform BestSecret. The owner of the platform took over the entire park and at the same time guaranteed the possibility of expansion by another over 40,000 sq m. sqm in the Sulechów complex.
The report shows that in the second quarter the vacancy rate remained at a low level, reaching 3.1%.
In recent months, there has been a marked increase in headline rents. Comparing the past two quarters, their average fluctuates around 9%, but there are zones in Poland, such as Warsaw II and Poznań, where rents are growing at a rate of around 20%, which is much faster than the increase in construction costs, estimated today at about 10 percent. This upward trend, which we anticipate in the next quarter, will also result from the low level of available warehouse space for lease throughout Poland - says Robert Pawłowski, director in the Warehouse and Logistics Leasing Department, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
The largest average increases in headline rental rates, apart from Warsaw II and Poznań, were recorded in Wrocław, Upper Silesia and Central Poland.
One of the two engines, along with e-commerce, driving the sector's development is shortening of supply chains, or "friendshoring". At a time when, on the one hand, conditions are dictated by global economic turbulence and Covid, and, on the other, by a regional armed conflict with consequences spreading around the world, companies are trying to better protect against disruption of business continuity. In addition to increasing inventories and transferring investments from Asia to Europe, the market shows movements securing production and logistics within countries that are politically and economically stable, and additionally protected by NATO security guarantees. Poland and other countries of the region may be the beneficiaries of "friendshoring".
Another accelerator for the sector is and will be e-commerce. Estimates indicate that warehouses and logistic facilities where e-commerce operations are performed reach nearly 30 percent. the total resources available in the market. Equally important, Poland as a country is becoming a fashion e-commerce center. Industry estimates say that in 2025, revenues from online fashion sales will reach USD 365 billion, which will be a result twice as high as that generated in 2020.
Fashion e-commerce in the region is growing fast and seems immune to various turbulences. For the development of this segment, Poland, especially the western wall, may turn out to be an important link. The location, good infrastructure, logistics facilities and proximity to Western Europe are arguments that have the power to convince - says Michał Rdzanek, deputy director in the Department of Warehouse and Logistics Leasing, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
